Analysis of the change trend of etiological burden of disease of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 / 中华消化外科杂志

Objective:To investigate the change trend of etiological burden of disease of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019.Methods:The descriptive epidemiologic method was conducted. Based on the Global Burden of Disease data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the data related to liver cancer burden caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, alcohol, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and other factors, including number of new cases, the crude incidence rate, age-specific incidence rate, number of deaths, crude mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate, in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were collected. The age-standardized rate was calculated based on the world standardized population structure in 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease data. Observation indicators: (1) the incidence of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (2) the mortality of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (3) the change trend of age-specific incidence rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (4) the age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. Count data were expressed as absolute numbers, percentages and ratio. Based on the junction point regression model, the Joinpoint software (V.4.9.1.0) was used to calculate the annual percentage change, average annual percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals ( CI) of age-specific incidence rate and age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies. Results:(1) The incidence of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the number of new cases of liver cancer in Chinese population decreased from 236 825 to 210 462, and the crude incidence rate decreased from 20.01/100,000 to 14.80/100,000. The new cases of liver cancer caused by HBV infection, HCV infection and other factors showed a downward trend, and the absolute change rates were ?14.76%, ?3.98% and ?26.67%, respectively. The new cases of liver cancer caused by alcohol and NASH showed a increase trend, and the absolute change rates were 9.31% and 13.91%, respectively. (2) The mortality of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths of liver cancer in Chinese population decreased from 232 449 to 187 700, and the crude mortality rate decreased from 19.64/100,000 to 13.20/100,000. The number of deaths of liver cancer caused by HBV infection, HCV infection and other factors showed a down-ward trend, and the absolute change rates were ?23.34%, ?10.99% and ?33.75%, respectively. The number of deaths of liver cancer caused by alcohol showed a slow downward trend, and the absolute change rate was ?0.51%. The number of deaths of liver cancer caused by NASH showed a increase trend, and the absolute change rate was 6.03%. (3) The change trend of age-specific incidence rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of age-specific incidence rate of liver cancer caused by HBV infection, HCV infection, alcohol, NASH and other factors was ?3.61%(95% CI as ?4.10% to ?3.11%), ?3.57%(95% CI as ?3.99% to ?3.14%), ?2.79%(95% CI as ?3.24% to ?2.33%), ?2.65%(95% CI as ?3.09% to ?2.21%) and ?3.62%(95% CI as ?4.05% to ?3.19%), respectively. (4) The age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by HBV infection, HCV infection, alcohol, NASH and other factors was ?3.92%(95% CI as ?4.42% to ?3.41%), ?3.90%(95% CI as ?4.45% to ?3.35%), ?3.15%(95% CI as ?3.71% to ?2.58%), ?2.86%(95% CI as ?3.34% to ?2.38%) and ?4.09%(95% CI as ?4.64% to ?3.55%), respectively. Conclusions:From 1990 to 2019, the liver cancer burden of the Chinese population shows an overall downward trend, in which the liver cancer burden caused by HBV and HCV infection decreases the most, but HBV and HCV infection is still the main reason for the heavy burden of liver cancer. The age-specific incidence rate and age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by alcohol and NASH show a downward trend, but the number of new cases of liver cancer caused by alcohol and NASH shows significant growth. The liver cancer burden caused by other factors shows a downward trend.

Global trajectories of liver cancer burden from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2035 / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

BACKGROUND@#Large disparities exist in liver cancer burden trends across countries but are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the global trajectories of liver cancer burden, explore the driving forces, and predict future trends.@*METHODS@#Data on the liver cancer burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trajectories were defined using growth mixture models. Five major risk factors contributing to changes in the ASIR or ASMR and socioeconomic determinants were explored using the identified trajectories. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends through 2035.@*RESULTS@#Three trajectories of liver cancer burden were identified: increasing, stable, and decreasing groups. Almost half of the American countries were classified in the decreasing group (48.6% for ASIR and ASMR), and the increasing group was the most common in the European region (ASIR, 49.1%; ASMR, 37.7%). In the decreasing group, the decrease of liver cancer due to hepatitis B contributed 63.4% and 60.4% of the total decreases in ASIR and ASMR, respectively. The increase of liver cancer due to alcohol use, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B contributed the most to the increase in the increasing group (30.8%, 31.1%, and 24.2% for ASIR; 33.7%, 30.2%, and 22.2% for ASMR, respectively). The increasing group was associated with a higher sociodemographic index, gross domestic product per capita, health expenditure per capita, and universal health coverage (all P <0.05). Significant variations in disease burden are predicted to continue through 2035, with a disproportionate burden in the decreasing group.@*CONCLUSION@#Global disparities were observed in liver cancer burden trajectories. Hepatitis B, alcohol use, and hepatitis C were identified as driving forces in different regions.

Cancer statistics in China and United States, 2022: profiles, trends, and determinants / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

BACKGROUND@#The cancer burden in the United States of America (USA) has decreased gradually. However, China is experiencing a transition in its cancer profiles, with greater incidence of cancers that were previously more common in the USA. This study compared the latest cancer profiles, trends, and determinants between China and USA.@*METHODS@#This was a comparative study using open-source data. Cancer cases and deaths in 2022 were calculated using cancer estimates from GLOBOCAN 2020 and population estimates from the United Nations. Trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates in the USA used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and National Center for Health Statistics. Chinese data were obtained from cancer registry reports. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 and a decomposition method were used to express cancer deaths as the product of four determinant factors.@*RESULTS@#In 2022, there will be approximately 4,820,000 and 2,370,000 new cancer cases, and 3,210,000 and 640,000 cancer deaths in China and the USA, respectively. The most common cancers are lung cancer in China and breast cancer in the USA, and lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in both. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for lung cancer and colorectal cancer in the USA have decreased significantly recently, but rates of liver cancer have increased slightly. Rates of stomach, liver, and esophageal cancer decreased gradually in China, but rates have increased for colorectal cancer in the whole population, prostate cancer in men, and other seven cancer types in women. Increases in adult population size and population aging were major determinants for incremental cancer deaths, and case-fatality rates contributed to reduced cancer deaths in both countries.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The decreasing cancer burden in liver, stomach, and esophagus, and increasing burden in lung, colorectum, breast, and prostate, mean that cancer profiles in China and the USA are converging. Population aging is a growing determinant of incremental cancer burden. Progress in cancer prevention and care in the USA, and measures to actively respond to population aging, may help China to reduce the cancer burden.

The incidence and mortality of lung cancer in China, 2014 / 中华肿瘤杂志

Objective@#To estimate lung cancer incidence and mortality in China using population-based cancer registry data in 2014 collected by National Central Cancer Registry of China (NCCRC).@*Methods@#449 cancer registries submitted cancer registry data in 2014. All datasets were evaluated and 339 registries′ data which met the quality control criteria of NCCRC were analyzed. Numbers of new lung cancer cases and deaths were estimated using calculated incidence and mortality rates and corresponding national population stratified by areas, sexes and age groups. The standard population of Chinese census in 2000 and world Segi′ s population were applied to calculate age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in China and worldwide, respectively.@*Results@#A total of 781, 500 new lung cancer cases were diagnosed in 2014. The crude incidence rate was 57.13 per 100 000 and the age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC) and by world standard population (ASIRW) were 36.71 per 100 000 and 36.63 per 100 000, respectively. The cumulative incidence rate (0-74 years old) was 4.50%. Lung cancer was the most common cancer in male (ASIRW: 50.04 per 100 000) and the second most common cancer in female (ASIRW: 23.63 per 100 000). The incidence rates were slightly similar in urban areas and in rural areas (ASIRW: 36.64 per 100 000 vs 36.56 per 100 000). A total of 626 400 lung cancer deaths were reported. The crude mortality rate was 45.80 per 100 000 and the age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population (ASMRC) and by world standard population (ASMRW) were 28.49 per 100 000 and 28.31 per 100 000, respectively. The cumulative mortality rate (0-74 years old) was 3.32%. Lung cancer was the most common cause of cancer deaths both in male (ASMRW: 40.21 per 100 000) and female (ASMRW: 16.88 per 100 000). The mortality rate was slightly higher in rural areas than in urban areas (ASMRW: 28.63 per 100 000 vs 28.04 per 100 000). Both lung cancer incidence and mortality rates increased with age, and the peak age was 80-84 years group.@*Conclusions@#The disease burden of lung cancer is heavy in China. Efficient national health policies and prevention and control strategies against lung cancer should be promoted.

Analysis on the trend of cancer incidence and age change in cancer registry areas of China, 2000 to 2014 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#To analyze the trends of cancer incidence and age changes in China with using cancer registration data, and to provide evidence for the development of cancer prevention and control.@*Methods@#Twenty-two cancer registries with continuous (2000-2014) data were selected. The incidence of different sex and regional population, the standardized incidence rate by Chinese population, the average annual change percentage (AAPC) and annual change percentage(APC) were calculated. Age-period-cohort model were used to analyze the changes of cancer incidence, age-adjusted mean ages. The age-standardized proportion of 2000 and 2014 with were compared.@*Results@#The cancer incidence in China increased by 3.9% (95%CI: 3.7%-4.1%) from 2000 to 2014 in APC, and the age-standardized incidence rate increased by 1.2% (95%CI: 1.0%-1.4%) in AAPC. The age-specific incidence showed that each age groups increased significantly in female, ranged between 0.9% to 6.0%. The APC in male aged from 60 years old showed decline trend, the APC in 60-69, 70-79, ≥80 years old were -0.2, -0.3, -0.3, while in the population aged 0-29, 30-39 years old increased dramatically, APC were 3.5, 2.0. Female under 60 also increased, and APC in 0-29, 30-39, 40-49, 0-59 years old were 5.7, 6.0, 3.4, 2.9, respectively. The mean age of patients diagnosed with cancer were increased during the past 15 years, with about 0.11 years per year increased. However, the mean age of the patients diagnosed with cancer showed decreased trend by 0.13 years after age structure adjusted.@*Conclusion@#The trend of mean age for cancer incidence in China were getting younger than before, and the trend in women is more obviously than in man.

Analysis on the trend of prostate cancer incidence and age change in cancer registration areas of China, 2000 to 2014 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#To analyze the trend of cancer incidence and age changes among men in cancer registration areas of China from 2000 and 2014.@*Methods@#We select the information of national cancer registry with continuous data from 2000 to 2014, review and organize the monitoring data at the above registries. A total of 22 monitoring registries were included in this study. The covering population of male were about 314 330 648 person years. The information on the incidence of all male prostate cancer patients with C61 was extracted from the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10). To understand the incidence of male prostate cancer in each year, the age-standardized rate by Chinese population (ASR), average annual percent change (AAPC), adjusted mean age at onset were calculated. Incidence rates stratified by regions and age groups were also calculated. The linear regression model was employed to analyze the relationship between mean age at onset and year.@*Results@#The prostate cancer incidence in China increased by 11.5% (95%CI: 10.3%-12.7%) from 2000(4.62/100 000) to 2014(21.62/100 000), the age-standardized incidence rate increased by 7.1% (95%CI: 6.0%-8.1%) and the growth of rural was greater than that of urban. The age-specific incidence showed that the incidence rate increased significantly among the age group of 50 years; the incidence rates in men who have the same age but with different birth years showed a significant increase as birth years increased. The adjusted mean age at diagnosis of prostate cancer in cancer registry areas was 74.09 years old in the year of 2000, reduced by 0.13 year old to 72.35 years old in 2014 (β=-0.13, P<0.001). The adjusted mean age at onset declined significantly over time in urban areas (β=-0.13, P<0.001).@*Conclusion@#The trend of prostate cancer incidence among men in cancer registry regions generally increased, and the average age at diagnosis declined slightly from 2000 to 2014.

Incidence trend and change in the age distribution of female breast cancer in cancer registration areas of China from 2000 to 2014 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#To estimate the incidence trend and change in the age distribution of female breast cancer in cancer registry areas in China from 2000 to 2014.@*Methods@#22 cancer registries in China with continuous monitoring data from 2000 to 2014 were selected. All datasets were checked and evaluated based on data quality control criteria and were included in the analysis. The cancer registries covered 675 954 193 person-years, including 342 010 930 person-years of male and 333 943 263 person-years of female. Female breast cancer cases (International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision: C50) were extracted. Crude incidence rate (CR), age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population(ASIRC), annual percent change (APC), crude and adjusted mean age at onset were calculated. Incidence rates stratified by regions and age groups were calculated.@*Results@#Female breast cancer incidence rate significantly increased from 31.90/100 000 in 2000 to 63.30/100 000 in 2014. Incidence rate increased rapidly from 2000 to 2008 (CR: APC=6.5%, 95%CI: 5.3%-7.8%; ASIRC: APC=4.6%, 95%CI: 3.6%-5.7%). Its increment slowed down from 2008-2014 (CR: APC=3.2%, 95%CI: 1.4%-5.1%; ASIRC: APC=1.4%, 95%CI:-0.1%-2.9%). The crude mean age at onset increased from 54.4 in 2000 to 57.0 in 2014. Adjusted mean age at onset remained around 54.3 in 2014. Crude mean age at onset increased significantly over time in all registry areas (β=0.192, P<0.001), urban (β=0.205, P<0.001) and rural (β=0.092, P=0.014) areas, while adjusted mean age at onset remained stable in all registry areas (β=0.009, P=0.289), urban (β=0.017, P=0.139) and rural (β=-0.054, P=0.109) areas.@*Conclusion@#Female breast cancer incidence rate in China increased from 2000 to 2014. Aging of the population resulted in a significant increase in crude mean age at onset. After age adjustment, no significant changes in age distribution were found.

Incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in China, 2014 / 中华肿瘤杂志

Objective@#To estimate the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in China based on the cancer registration data in 2014, collected by the National Central Cancer Registry (NCCR), and to provide support data for breast cancer prevention and control in China.@*Methods@#There were 449 cancer registries submitting female breast cancer incidence and deaths data occurred in 2014 to NCCR. After evaluating the data quality, 339 registries′ data were accepted for analysis and stratified by areas (urban/rural) and age group. Combined with data on national population in 2014, the nationwide incidence and mortality of female breast cancer were estimated. Chinese population census in 2000 and Segi′s population were used for age-standardized incidence/mortality rates.@*Results@#Qualified 339 cancer registries covered a total of 288 243 347 populations (144 061 915 in urban and 144 181 432 in rural areas) in 2014. The morphology verified cases (MV%) accounted for 87.42% and 0.59% of incident cases were identified through death certifications only (DCO%), with mortality to incidence ratio of 0.24. The estimates of new breast cancer cases were about 278 900 in China in 2014, accounting for 16.51% of all new cases in female. The crude incidence rate, age-standardized rate of incidence by Chinese standard population (ASRIC), and age-standardized rate of incidence by world standard population (ASRIW) of breast cancer were 41.82/100 000, 30.69/100 000, and 28.77/100 000, respectively, with a cumulative incidence rate (0-74 age years old) of 3.12%. The crude incidence rates and ASRIC in urban areas were 49.94 per 100 000 and 34.85 per 100 000, respectively, whereas those were 31.72 per 100 000 and 24.89 per 100 000 in rural areas. The estimates of breast cancer deaths were about 66 000 in China in 2014, accounting for 7.82% of all the cancer-related deaths in female. The crude mortality rate, age-standardized rate of mortality by Chinese standard population(ASRMC) and age-standardized rate of mortality by world standard population (ASRMW) of breast cancer were 9.90/100 000, 6.53/100 000, and 6.35/100 000, respectively, with a cumulative mortality rate of 0.69%. The crude mortality rates and ASRMC in urban areas were 11.48 per 100 000 and 7.04 per 100 000, respectively, whereas those were 7.93 per 100 000 and 5.79 per 100 000 in rural areas. The incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer were higher in areas than those in rural areas. The age-specific incidence rates of breast cancer increased greatly after 20 years old and peaked at the age group of 55-60. The age-specific mortality rates increased rapidly with age, particularly after 25 years old. They remained at a relative stable level from 55 to 65 years of age, and then increased dramatically and peaked in the age group of 85 and above.@*Conclusions@#Breast cancer is still one of the most common malignant tumor threatening to famale health in China. The disease is more prevalent in urban areas at the age group of 55-60. Comprehensive prevention and control strategies referring to local status and age groups should be carried out to reduce the burden of breast cancer.

Progress of research on the association between air pollution and prevalence of major cancers / 中华流行病学杂志

Being an undisputed risk factor of cancer,air pollution is posing a huge threat to the health on human beings.In this article,we introduced the composition of air pollution,and the standards on air quality which was set by both World Health Organization and the Chinese government.We also summarized the most recent research findings on the association between air pollution and the risk of lung,breast,bladder and other major cancers.

Progress of research on the association between air pollution and prevalence of major cancers / 中华流行病学杂志

Being an undisputed risk factor of cancer,air pollution is posing a huge threat to the health on human beings.In this article,we introduced the composition of air pollution,and the standards on air quality which was set by both World Health Organization and the Chinese government.We also summarized the most recent research findings on the association between air pollution and the risk of lung,breast,bladder and other major cancers.

Analysis of the effect of menopausal status and molecular subtype on survivals among breast cancer patients / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#To analyze the associations between molecular subtypes and overall breast cancer survival among premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer in Beijing, and to provide basic information for breast cancer clinical researches and control.@*Methods@#All the resident patients diagnosed with breast cancer in four well-established hospitals were retrieved from Beijing cancer registry, related information, such as TNM stages, receptor status, histological grade, height, weight, were collected by case extraction. Cancer registration information and population-based follow-up information were used to acquire survival outcome. All the patients were followed up until 31 December 2015, 4 531 cases with invasive, primary breast were included in the final analysis. All the cases were classified into Luminal and non-Luminal according to receptor status. Five-year survival rates of the two subtypes were estimated by the life-table method. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were employed to evaluate the associations between molecular subtypes and breast cancer survival.@*Results@#Of all the 4 531 patients, premenopausal patients accounted for 44.5% (2 017 cases) and postmenopausal patients accounted for 55.5% (2 514 cases). 643 cases died during the study period. Overall five-year survival was 89.5% (95%CI: 88.6%-90.4%), for premenopausal and postmenopausal patients, they were 92.1% (95%CI: 90.9%-93.3%), and 87.5% (95%CI: 86.2%-88.8%), respectively. Among all the patients, 3 730 patients had molecular subtype, 76.7% (2 861 cases) were Luminal breast cancer, and 23.3% (869 cases) were non-Luminal breast cancer. Five-year survival rates for Luminal and non-Luminal were 91.8% (95%CI: 90.8%-92.8%), and 83.2% (95%CI: 80.7%-85.7%), respectively. No matter in premenopausal or postmenopausal patients, non-Luminal breast cancer had significantly higher risk of death compared to Luminal breast cancer (premenopausal: HR=1.85, 95%CI: 1.26-2.73; premenopausal: HR=1.42, 95%CI: 1.07-1.88).@*Conclusion@#For both premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer patients, non-Luminal breast cancer had lower five-year survival rates than Luminal breast cancer, which was a risk factor on breast cancer survival.